THE JAMAICAN MID-SUMMER
DROUGHT AND NAO
Teddy Allen
Department of Geography,
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) varies between positive
and negative phases that influence global atmospheric circulation patterns. The
seasonal strength of the Caribbean low-level jet responds to the phases of the
NAO and contributes to precipitation variability throughout the Caribbean
region. The Caribbean low level jet, with a maximum at 925mb, together with the
200mb winds influences the magnitude of the regional Mid Summer Drought. A
strong vertical wind shear further suppresses the precipitation minimum during
the Mid Summer Drought by reducing overall convective processes. This scenario
can increase crop stress, which creates concern for local farmers and economies
that depend on agricultural productivity.
Jamaica represents a prime example of a nation that exists
within the Mid Summer Drought region that relies upon agriculture as a major
component of their economy. NCAR reanalysis 925mb and 200mb wind data along
with surface pressures and station rain gauge data are used to establish the
relationship between the NAO, the
THE
ESIP FEDERATIONS LONG EXPERIENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF WEB SERVICES
Karl Benedict, Ph.D.
Poster
For nearly 10-years the members of
Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP Federation) have worked
to develop, promote, and deploy reusable, standards-based data services, both
for use within the Federation and for external project partners. This poster
explains and illustrates some of the data services and service models developed
by Federation members. These models include services that are based upon the
geospatial data standards developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), web
and data structure standards developed by the World-Wide-Web Consortium (W3C),
metadata standards developed by the Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC)
and the International Standards Organization (ISO), and specifications developed
by communities of developers. The development of standards- based technologies
within the Federation membership has greatly streamlined access to and distribution
of data and data-based products, with the experience of the Federation
membership providing a rich collection of service-based examples which may be
used to inform the development of new applications.
CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND
NAVAL DECISION-MAKING
Tony Boyter
Navy Climatology Supports:
- USN Ship Transits - entire ocean basin or multiple basins includes all basic weather elements
- Global Submarine Surveillance - primarily winds, waves and ocean temperature profiles
- Exercise/Operations Planning? Specific location all basic weather elements
- Weapons/Platform
Deployment/Development? Regional area support for usually one or two
specific weather elements
INTEGRATED WATER
RESOURCES PRODUCTS FOR
DROUGHT MONITORING
IN NORTH CAROLINA
Mark Brooks, Ryan Boyles
State Climate Office of
Water supply issues are becoming more economically and
socially important than ever before. Reliable and timely monitoring of water
resource data is critical for the operations and policy of the state and
individual municipalities. With funding from the North Carolina Division of
Water Resources (NC DWR), the State Climate Office of North Carolina (SCO)
developed CRONOS H2O. CRONOS H2O is part of the Climate Retrieval and
Observations Network of the Southeast (CRONOS) already developed by the SCO. CRONOS
H2O is a database and dissemination tool that helps agencies and citizens
monitor water resource data from several different sources. Streamflows,
groundwater, reservoir levels, and precipitation from
The SCO, a public-service center and extension of the UNC
system, works closely with NC state agencies, researchers and user-groups to
serve the climate needs of
FORECASTING CLIMATE AND HEALTH RELATED EVENTS ON PLATANUS POLLEN AND GRASS POLLEN SEASONS IN THE MADRID REGION (SPAIN)
J.L. Camacho (1), D. Cano (1), P. Cervign (2), J. Daz (2), A.M. Gutirrez (2), J. Subiza (2)
(1) National Institute of Meteorology, Spain (2) PalinoCAM Network, Autonomous Region of Madrid, Spain, (3)
Poster
Medical urgencies related to allergenic pollens have
increased in the last decades. More than 5% of the around 6 million people
living at the autonomous
FORECASTING
AND REDUCING THE COST OF EXTREME EVENTS:
Aston
Chipanshi, Harvey Hill & Gordon Sparks
Agriculture and
A goal of NOAA and other agencies
has been to utilize climate forecasts and information innovatively to enhance
decision-making. This presentation describes a pilot study that integrates
climate information, hydrology, geographic information systems, and economics.
The goal of the integration is to develop a methodology to assess the expected
cost and impact of alternative extreme rainfall events on infrastructure
systems. Secondly it describes how the alternative adaptation responses are
assessed in terms of costs and benefits stochastically. The presentation
concludes with a description of the next steps planned to integrate this into
operational settings.
CLIMATE VARIATION AND USACE WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Jack E. Davis and William R. Curtis
Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory
USAE Research and
The challenge for the Corps and all water resource manage
agencies is to interpret the science related to climate projections, assess
potential impacts, then translate those impacts to criteria for project
planning, design and effective operation. The Corps is meeting this challenge
by collaborating with Federal and non-federal management agencies regarding
appropriate response to climate change, and coordinating with research efforts
to define uncertainty and develop methods to manage risk associated with climate
projections and assessments. This presentation provides an overview of the
Corps research activities related to characterizing climate variability impacts
to project operations, and to explore alternative mitigation strategies to
offset expected climate variability impacts.
COMMUNICATING
CLIMATE DATA FOR DECISION SUPPORT AT THE COUNTY AND REGIONAL LEVEL THROUGH
GEOSPATIAL VISUALIZATION
J. Greg
Dobson and James F. Fox
Comprehensive climate data exists
within many federal, regional, and state agencies. There is now more climate
information available than ever before, which can potentially improve decision
making at multiple levels and across multiple sectors. However, much of the
climate information is not in formats that are easily interpreted by the
non-scientific community. Through the support of a multi-disciplinary
collaboration involving the University of North Carolina at Asheville (UNCA),
the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at UNCA, the National Climatic Data
Center (NCDC), and the North Carolina State Climate Office, the issue of making
raw climate data more meaningful to such local decision making groups as city
and county councils, emergency and first responders, and community planners is
being addressed through applied research. Additional collaborative support
comes from a working relationship with the Greenville-Spartanburg National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
The focus is to ingest climate data from multiple sources and integrate the
data with a variety of other datasets, including economic, cadastral,
infrastructure, and physical data. Data integration occurs at a county and
regional scale in order to facilitate local decision making addressing issues
that affect these areas directly, such as weather-related hazards, climate
change, and land use planning. Geospatial Visualization techniques, including
geographic information systems (GIS), Google Earth, and other open-source and
online applications, are used to create a variety of integrated climate data
products. Many of the products are 3D in nature (e.g. graphics, posters,
animations) in an effort to simulate a virtual experience of the data and
locations that the data relates to.
A particular case-study examined the Swannanoa Watershed in
INTEGRATED
ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE STATE OF WASHINGTON
M.M. Elsner,
J.S. Littell, E.L. Miles, D.P. Lettenmaier
Climate Impacts Group,
In April 2007, the State of
IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON
M.M. Elsner, J.S. Littell, E.L. Miles,
D.P. Lettenmaier
Climate Impacts Group,
Poster
Climate change has and will continue to cause substantial
changes in temperature, precipitation and related variables (e.g., streamflow
timing and volume) in the western
HOW DID WE DO?
INITIAL RESULTS FROM A PILOT CLIMAS
STAKEHOLDER EVALUATION PROJECT
Daniel
Ferguson, Anne Browning-Aiken, Gregg Garfin, Daniel McDonald, Marta Stuart,
Jennifer Rice
CLIMAS-Institute for the Study of Planet
Earth, University of
Department of Geography,
The mission of the Climate Assessment for the Southwest
(CLIMAS) program is to improve the regions ability to respond sufficiently and
appropriately to climate events, variability, and changes. The program promotes
participatory, iterative research involving scientists, decision makers,
resource users, educators, and others who need more and better information
about climate and its impacts. The CLIMAS Stakeholder Evaluation project,
currently underway, is examining CLIMAS efforts to engage stakeholders on
climate-related topics (with a particular emphasis on drought-related
engagement) through a broad array of efforts between 2002 and 2007. The
evaluation is designed to systematically examine a variety of methods employed
by CLIMAS researchers and the core office to engage stakeholders.
The primary goals of the evaluation project are to determine: (a) penetration
of CLIMAS information to stakeholders, (b) the perceived salience, credibility
and legitimacy of CLIMAS research and outreach, and (c) changes in stakeholder
attitudes, knowledge, and behavior as a result of partnerships and
collaborative processes. The six-person evaluation team is comprised of both
CLIMAS team members and experienced program evaluators with no CLIMAS contact
prior to this effort. The team is using an evaluation approach that includes a
survey, key informant interviews, and focus groups.
The knowledge generated by this project will provide a broad array of insights
into the successes and challenges of a long-term, stakeholder-driven climate
research and outreach effort. This knowledge is important both for the future
success of the CLIMAS project itself, but more generally it will offer guidance
for other initiatives with similar operational models, like the National
Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Josh Foster
UCAR/NOAA, Climate Program Office,
In the last five years, momentum
in NOAA to establish research to operations and applications transition
mechanisms has grown as a result of external recommendations (e.g. National
Research Council reports, CCSP Strategic Plan) and internal policy changes. In
May 2005, NOAA issued an Administrative Order (NAO) 216-105 for a Policy on
Transition of Research to Applications. The NOAA Climate Transition Program
(NCTP) was launched in 2003, changing its name to TRACS in 2005. The mission of
the TRACS Program is to use competitive research grants to transition
experimentally mature climate information tools, methods, and processes,
including computer related applications (e.g. web interfaces, visualization
tools), from research mode into settings where they may be applied in an
operational and sustained manner. The primary goal is to generate sustained
delivery of useful climate information products and services to local,
regional, national, and international decision and policy makers. A secondary
goal seeks not only to support implementation of these transitions, but also to
learn from partners how to better accomplish technology transition processes
for public goods applications and improved risk management. Led primarily from
the university and Federal laboratory research communities, TRACS emphasizes
engaging with operations, extension, and user communities in transition
partnership projects. TRACS is designed to accommodate four types of transition
project partnerships: 1) Within NOAA units; 2) From external partners to NOAA;
3) From NOAA to external partners; 4) Among external (NOAA) partners (using
NOAA funds). Beginning in 2005, TRACS has funded the start of projects
involving universities working with a range of partners, including but not limited
to, Regional Climate Centers, State Sea Grant, emergency and coastal managers,
the
NEW
DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE PLANS FOR AgClimate.org
AgClimate.org is a web-based
climate forecast and decision support system developed by the Southeast Climate
Consortium (SECC) in partnership with the Cooperative State Extension Service.
The SECC is a coalition of six universities -
RISA REGIONAL DROUGHT KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS:
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
U.
CLIMATE
PREDICTION APPLICATIONS POSTDOCTORAL PROGRAM (CPAPP) AN EXPERIMENT IN INTERFACING CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
Lisa Goddard, Kelly Redmond,
and Meg Austin
IRI,
NCAR
This postdoctoral
program was conceived and developed by the US CLIVAR panel on Predictability,
Prediction and Application Interface (PPAI). The mission of the PPAI panel is
to encourage improved practices in the provision, validation and use of
climate forecast information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales through
broad but coordinated participation within the US and active collaboration with
the international climate and climate applications communities. A primary goal of this panel (http://usclivar.org/Organization/PPAIpanel.html)
is, To enable the use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support. Making progress in interfacing climate
science with decision and information systems requires more than just good
climate information; it requires a dedicated effort to understanding the
problems and possibilities on both sides. To complement strategies tried in the
past (hosting meetings of climate scientists and decision makers;
trans-disciplinary research), which although useful reach a limited and finite
audience, we sought a new approach. The idea was to develop a new population of
individuals qualified to work closely with both the climate research and
decision making communities, through a targeted and trans-disciplinary
postdoctoral program. This presentation will describe the program its goals,
design, and how it is currently succeeding as the program enters its first
year.
A
COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE
Jon
Gottschalck, Sarah Trainor, Wayne Higgins, Tim Eichler
NOAA /
At the Climate Prediction
Applications Science Workshop (CPASW) in
Progress to date of this collaboration is described and includes the
organization of an Alaska wide teleconference for a variety of Alaska
stakeholders to learn about CPC storminess related products and potential
capabilities. The above teleconference has led to a prioritized list of work
items that in part will be included in a formalized workplan currently being
developed. Some initial results and plans are presented and include work in
three areas - (1) evaluation of storminess related numerical model results from
the next generation Climate Forecast System (CFS), (2) development of a
storminess index that includes information about storm frequency, duration, and
intensity into a single index, and (3) plans for the development of a
storminess-related probabilistic tool for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day time
periods using the Global Forecast System (GFS) and later the CFS for longer
time ranges (monthly, seasonal). Finally, it is hoped that the framework being
utilized as part of this collaboration can be applied to other CPC products and
potentially other partners wishing to work more closely with CPC.
Bart
Hagemeyer
NOAA/NWS
Poster
An advantage of using LR is that customers can be involved in the database
development by defining the thresholds for critical values that are most
important to their particular endeavor with the result being customized
probabilistic forecasts of the impact of the teleconnections. Although the
author's work has been for the
Traditional deterministic methods to predict the impact of ENSO on a customer
have considerable drawbacks. Consider the El Nino of 2006-07; was it a weak,
moderate or strong? What should a user of a seasonal rainfall forecast do to
exploit the occurrence to their advantage? Conventional wisdom holds that an El
Nino should result in wetter than normal conditions in
SUPPORTING
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN U.S. NATIONAL PARKS THROUGH SCENARIO PLANNING
Holly C.
Hartmann, Leigh Welling, Lee Macholz
National Park Service,
Climate changes associated with
global warming pose myriad risks in natural resource management. The National
Park Service (NPS) faces daunting challenges in addressing prospective climate
change impacts; in some parks, changes threaten the existence of emblematic
park attributes. Each park faces unique risks, reflecting its natural,
cultural, and historical attributes, its purpose as defined in establishing
authorization, the resources available for planning and implementing adaptive
responses, and the uncertainty of local climate change impacts.
We experimentally applied a formal scenario planning process to two parks:
Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) in southern
The case studies focused on the question, How will we manage this park in the
face of prospective climate change impacts? The formal process emphasized
development of scenarios diverging across multiple dimensions, to plausibly
push the boundaries of commonplace assumptions about the future rather than
simply bracketing a moderate climate projection with higher and lower extremes.
This process required engaging a broad range of park management and science
specialists, with participation changing flexibly as the process addressed
different issues.
Participants generally were familiar with NPS planning processes or evaluating
management alternatives, but not with scenario planning. The guidebook prepared
by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and King County,
Preparing for Climate Change, provided important structure for identifying
external driving forces and anticipated impacts across a range of management
sectors.
Implementation of the scenario planning process was challenging because
participants were scattered across many states, yet scenario development
required repeated iterations of extensive discussion followed by data gathering
and analysis. Use of a systems diagramming tool in an Internet-based meeting environment
proved useful for elucidating a common understanding of linkages between
driving forces, internal system dynamics, and anticipated impacts.
Adaptation strategies were developed in response to the scenarios at a 2-day
workshop at JTNP. While some sea level rise scenarios initially seemed to pose
insurmountable challenges, managers ultimately identified strategies that
preserved the cultural importance of KHNHP. Strategies for JTNP management were
more tentative, reflecting a greater variety of external stressors and system
interactions. The scenario planning approach was considered useful for
considering climate change in the context of complex systems and large
uncertainties, and for connecting scientific analysis to management concerns
and processes.
CONNECTING DATA PROVIDERS
AND STAKEHOLDERS
PRESENTATION: 1(Bridges)/2(ESIP)
Foundation for Earth Science
communities - represented by the RISAs and the Federation of
Earth Science
STRATEGY FOR
DEVELOPING CLIMATE FORECAST PRODUCTS IN COOPERATION WITH EXTERNAL PARTNERS
Wayne
Higgins and Mike Halpert
The Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) plays a unique and important role in NOAA Climate Services as a provider
of short term climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) that
serve a diverse customer base. CPCs role depends on strong leadership to
establish new partnerships (with a customer focus) that accelerate the
development and delivery of forecast products and services.
This talk presents the key elements of CPCs strategy for developing climate
forecast products in cooperation with external partners. The strategy includes
appropriate guidelines for adding tools to CPCs climate forecast product suite,
and a Climate Forecast Products Team (CPFT) that partners with customers to
meet their needs for climate information. New initiatives, such as the NOAA
Climate Test Bed (CTB), are opportunities to enhance these partnerships.
Potential partners need to know what the CPC priorities are for next year, the
year after that, and so on. Partners also need to know what specific CPC
resources will be expended in the pursuit of those priorities, a timetable for
producing specific products, and what potential partners could add to these
efforts. This talk provides an overview of CPC future priorities with emphasis
on the strategic challenges and the strategic approach that CPC is taking to
address those challenges.
WHAT MAY BE NEEDED TO
CHANGE FARMERS PERCEPTION OF USING CLIMATE PREDICTIONS IN FARMING DECISIONS
Qi S. Hu,
Lisa M. PytlikZillig, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Gary D. Lynne, and Roger H. Bruning
School of Natural Resources, Center for
Instructional Innovation, Department of Educational Psychology, and Department of
Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
A climate information transition
tool, the ThinkAboutIt and its resources, was tested and evaluated in two
recent workshops. Farmers from south central
Outcomes of the workshops suggest changes in farmers perceptions and abilities
in using climate and weather predictions and products if they are properly
guided to know the specifics of the predictions and are shown their relevance
to the decision. Details and implications of these results will be discussed in
the presentation.
EVALUATION AND USER
NEEDS RELATED TO EXPERIMENTAL SERVICE OF EARLY WARNING INFORMATION ON EXTREME
TEMPERATURE EVENTS IN JAPAN
Akira Ito
Climate Prediction Division
Japan Meteorological
Agency
Poster
We would like to present a new operational system of
providing climate information, which is called the early warning information
system for extreme weather. The aim of the activity is to improve
decision-making processes for reducing social damages in early stage so that
the target period of the system is approximately one to two weeks prior to its
occurrence. The system regularly provides probabilistic forecasting
distributions focused on an extreme high or low temperature over each local
region or at each specific site through the JMA Internet site. The Internet
site enables users to get any probability that the temperature will exceed the
requested threshold value. Furthermore, when there is a relatively high possibility
of an extreme high or low temperature that may have far reaching effects on
society, the early warning information system assists forecasters to issue
meteorological information on the numerical probability of its occurrence with
their comments.
It is expected that the early warning information is used
for paddy rice production management, applied to wheat growth model and
incorporated into the planning of electric supply through the participation of
agricultural organizations and electric power companies.
We are particularly concerned about low temperatures in
summer. This is because low summer temperatures have serious effects on the
quality and yield of rice, the staple food of the Japanese people. Moreover,
excessively low temperatures in summer can cause a sharp decrease in the rice
yield. In July 2007, a warning was issued about low temperatures for
RESIDENTIAL
WATER DEMAND: LESSONS FROM
Douglas S.
Kenney, Christopher Goemans, Roberta Klein, Jessica Lowrey, and Kevin Reidy
Western Water Assessment
The purpose of this study was to quantify and assess the savings associated
with the various demand management program elements during and after a drought.
We compared the influence of price, water use restriction, and weather on
monthly residential water demand during drought and pre-drought periods using
household data from 10,000 residential customers in
Results from this study expand the understanding of the effect of climate and
conservation policies on residential demand in at least three salient ways:
first, pricing and outdoor water restriction policies interact with each other
and total water savings are not additive of each program operating independently;
second, the effectiveness of pricing and restrictions policies varies among
different classes of customers (i.e., low, middle and high volume water users)
and between pre-drought and drought periods; and third, in demonstrating that
real-time information about consumptive use helps customers reach water-use
targets. Future research seeks to look further into how climate affects outdoor
water demand by identifying how landscape irrigation methods and lawn size
affect customers reactions to price, water restrictions, and weather.
Do Kyun Kim, Ph.D., &
Edward W. Maibach, Ph.D.
Concern about climate change is
high among scientists, the public, and other key segments of society (e.g.,
farmers, health professionals, policy makers). Despite the concern, people’s behavior,
business practices, and public policy have been slow to change. Diffusion of
Innovation Theory helps explain why these behaviors, practices and policies
have been slow to change, and what can be done about it. Our presentation
focuses on harnessing the profound influence opinion leaders. The success or
failure of new ideas, practices, products and services often hinges on the
acceptance of, and subsequent promotion by, opinion leaders. We discuss (1) the
basis for why and how opinion leaders are so influential; (2) the proven
effectiveness of opinion leader strategies in other domains of society (e.g.,
AIDS prevention); (3) the potential to harness opinion leaders to promote
climate change prevention and adaptation practices; and (4) research needed to
effectively scale-up such interventions.
CLIMATE
SERVICES
Dr.
NOAA
NOAAs strategy to address the
demand for climate services is evolving. The goal is to coordinate and enhance
NOAAs existing capabilities and infrastructure, as well as draw upon the full
suite of resources and products across the nation. The service should provide
essential information and services about the nature and impacts of changing
climate conditions to meet growing public demand. Topics of discussion will
include the history and evolution of climate services, strategies for
integrating research and services, and the importance of regional approaches.
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT GENERATION PROBABILISTIC FORECAST
PRODUCTS
Michelle
L'Heureux, Dan Collins, Wayne Higgins, Jeff Whitaker, Tom Hamill
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD
Poster
The partnerships between the
Climate Test Bed/CPC and the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments
(RISAs) have illuminated the demand from various user communities for
high-resolution, sub-seasonal, probabilistic forecast products. Forecasters at
CPC currently use a blend of various forecast tools and models in order to
create low-resolution probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts for
6-10 days and Week 2. One of the more historically skillful tools is a
reforecast-based statistical correction of an ensemble forecast model (1998
MRF) developed by Whitaker and Hamill. Despite using a ten-year-old model, this
technique still provides skill that rivals newer higher-resolution models and
has the additional benefit of producing probabilistic, downscaled products that
are in demand among diverse user communities. We seek to extend the Whitaker
and Hamill technique using a state-of-the-art coupled forecast model, such as
the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), which, if supplemented with additional
ensemble reforecasts, will enable the correction of week-3 and week-4
forecasts. Potential benefits to the user communities will include improved
warning for potential of extreme events, such as flooding rains, cold-air
outbreaks and heat waves in weeks 2-4.
INTERACTIONS WITH COLORADO
MUNICIPAL WATER MANAGERS ELEVATE THE USE OF CLIMATE INFORMATION
Jessica Lowrey and Andrea J. Ray
Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder CO
The Western Water Assessment (WWA) has conducted extensive
research on the uses and needs of
As a result of these interactions, water managers are taking
steps to use more climate information and to incorporate risk of climate
variability in annual operations and long-term planning. For example, they have
implemented drought plans that have various stages allowing for different
levels of demand, and the stages have triggers based on climate variables like
snowpack and forecasted streamflows. WWA workshops and meetings have also
fostered communication among water management groups who share water sources
and reservoirs in an interconnected system. Water managers are now working
together to incorporate common analysis of climate information into hydrology
models to assess the range of future streamflows for regional water planning.
This collaborative process between WWA and water managers illustrates a critical climate service and a successful RISA communication effort in this region. Results of this project include specific needs of municipal water managers for climate information and research. We will continue to foster education and communication among interconnected groups and provide feedback to NOAA climate services about these needs.
THE FORMULATION
AND PRESENTATION OF AN OFFICIAL STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE FOR OKLAHOMA
Gary McManus
and Dr. Ken Crawford
The Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(OCS), in its function as the state climate office, has been mandated by the
The formulation of the climate change statement, eventually released by OCS in
late-summer 2007, encountered considerations not strictly limited to the
science itself. In an effort to get the information contained within the
statement accepted by the greatest possible audience, great care was taken to
avoid alarmist jargon or politically-charged content. The science portion of
the climate change statement therefore was built strictly on the broad
consensus that exists within the scientific community regarding climate change.
A section on recommendations was added to afford OCS an opportunity to give its
thoughts to decision-makers about planning for not only the impacts of climate
change, but the impacts of natural variability as well.
The statement has been well-received by state decision-makers, and has afforded
many opportunities for OCS to interact with other state entities concerning
climate change and other matters. Partnerships have been forged with the
Oklahoma Water Resources Board, the Oklahoma Association of Conservation
Districts and the Oklahoma Conservation Commission, and the Oklahoma Department
of Agriculture. Climatologists from OCS have been asked to speak to a broad
range of functions and committees concerning climate change, from the Oklahoma
Senate to church groups.
TWO BECOMES
ONE: CARTOGRAPHIC INTEGRATION OF THE
Richard Murphy
Poster
Communicating drought information affords an important
context in which the significance of visualizing indicators can enhance
decision-making. Understanding the spatiality of drought conditions can aid in
gauging and mitigating current and anticipated impacts and losses. The U.S.
Drought Monitor (USDM) and the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (USSDO) synthesize
complex drought model and measurement outputs that incorporate synoptic
climatology, soil moisture calculations, and regionalized insights provided by
experts into a summary output for a general audience. The USDM map communicates
current drought conditions while the USSDO maps forecasted drought tendency. While
the USDM is effective as a standalone tool, the USSDO depends on the USDM to
provide context to its drought trend categories.
This investigation draws upon cartographic communication theory to ask whether a single map integrating information from the USDM and USSDO is more effective than the current method of communication that utilizes two separate maps. Information from the USDM and USSDO was integrated into a single-map format displaying categories of drought tendency within the context of measured drought conditions at the time the forecast was issued. Three variations of this single-map format were developed and tested along with the current two-map communication method. Surveys were conducted to evaluate the subjective and objective effectiveness of each visual communication method. User preference and accuracy of interpretation wer
